Resumen
La leishmaniasis visceral (VL) es una enfermedad potencialmente mortal causada por el parásito protozoario Leishmania donovani. Esta enfermedad es un problema de salud para los muy pobres porque da lugar a miles de muertes e infecciones cada año. Algunos países, como la India y Bangladesh, han comenzado programas para reducir las ocurrencias de VL centrándose en el diagnóstico precoz y el tratamiento completo de la VL. La leishmaniasis dérmica post-kala-azar (PKDL) es una manifestación cutánea de la leishmaniasis que puede ocurrir después del tratamiento incompleto de la VL. El diagnóstico y el tratamiento de PKDL son limitados en las regiones afectadas, y PKDL se ha identificado como un posible reservorio para la infección. Este estudio desarrolla un modelo matemático de la relación entre el nivel de tratamiento de PKDL y las incidencias de VL durante un periodo determinado. Los resultados indican una relación casi lineal entre las tasas de tratamiento de PKDL y la reducción porcentual de incidencias de VL. Con los tratamientos actualmente disponibles y teniendo en cuenta los niveles alcanzables de tratamiento, el modelo predice que hasta 20% de los casos de VL podrían prevenirse mediante el tratamiento de nuevos casos PKDL. También se tienen en cuenta iniciativas de tratamiento combinadas hipotéticas, como mosquiteros y pulverización de insecticidas. Los resultados sugieren que la población de individuos con PKDL es sin duda un factor importante en la transmisión de L. donovani, con el tratamiento de nuevos casos particularmente importantes.
Citas
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