Objective: The objective of this article is to estimate the probabilities of transition between different degrees of functional dependence, as well as the predictive capacity of this dependence for general mortality of women and men living in Mexico aged 65 and over. Methods: By means of probabilities, transitions between different degrees of functional dependence are calculated and, with proportional Cox risks models, the relative risks of mortality are estimated. Results: The results indicate that women are more likely to move from mild functional dependence to moderate or severe functional dependence than men. Likewise, women and men with severe functional dependence, assessed at the baseline, have higher relative risks of mortality than the mortality risks of individuals without functional dependence. Conclusion: There are differences in the probabilities of transition to functional dependence, noting that women are more likely to move to higher degrees of physical restraint than men. In this sense, having physical limitations in the development of basic activities of daily living increases mortality risks among Mexican elderly.
Keywords: functional dependence, aging, transition probabilities, mortality risks, Mexico