Impacto del cambio climático en la distribución de especies de plantas exóticas invasoras en humedales de la provincia occidental de Sri Lanka
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15517/rev.biol.trop..v73i1.58832Palabras clave:
temperatura; expansión de área de distribución; exóticas; cambio de hábitat; biodiversidad.Resumen
Introducción: El cambio climático y las especies de plantas exóticas invasoras (EPI) amenazan gravemente los ecosistemas naturales a nivel mundial.
Objetivo: Identificar y evaluar la idoneidad climática de siete especies asociadas a humedales y predecir su distribución futura utilizando vías socioeconómicas compartidas (VSSP) 2 4.5 y 5 8.5 para 2050 y 2070.
Métodos: Las especies seleccionadas para el estudio fueron Alstonia macrophylla, Annona glabra, Dillenia suffruticosa. Lantana camara, Leucaena leucocephala, Panicun maximum, y Sphagneticola trilobata. Los datos sobre la presencia de especies se recopilaron mediante estudios de campo en la provincia occidental (distritos de Colombo, Gampaha y Kalutara) y estos, junto con datos climáticos, se incorporaron al modelo de máxima entropía (modelo MaxEnt). Se desarrollaron mapas de áreas de idoneidad climática para las siete EPIs para el clima actual y cuatro escenarios futuros.
Resultados: A. glabra, L. camara y L. leucocephala mostraron un aumento en las áreas adecuadas para el clima para 2050 y 2070 en ambos escenarios climáticos en comparación con la distribución actual. S. trilobata mostró una disminución en su rango en el futuro en comparación con la distribución actual. El área adecuada del clima para A. macrophylla tampoco se expandirá en ninguno de los escenarios, excepto por un aumento modesto en SSP2 4.5 en 2050. La distribución actual de D. suffruticosa y las distribuciones de SSP2 4.5 en 2050 fueron casi idénticas, y los otros dos escenarios futuros mostraron una distribución comparativamente baja. Para P. maximum, SSP2 4.5 indicó un ligero aumento en las áreas adecuadas del clima para 2070 en comparación con la distribución actual.
Conclusión: A. glabra, L. camara y L. leucocephala pueden volverse altamente invasivas a medida que sus áreas de distribución se expandan en respuesta a futuros cambios climáticos. La distribución de S. trilobata se reducirá significativamente en futuros escenarios climáticos. A medida que las áreas adecuadas para EPIs aumenten en el distrito de Colombo en comparación con otros distritos de la provincia, sus especies de plantas nativas asociadas a humedales pueden enfrentar un mayor riesgo de invasión por EPIs en futuros escenarios climáticos.
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