Excess mortality in Mexico 2020: a preliminary estimate at national and state level
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15517/psm.v19i2.47247Keywords:
mortality excess, COVID-19, life expectancy, smoothing, MexicoAbstract
As a direct or indirect consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, joint other public health problems, Mexico is one of the most affected countries in terms of excess mortality, which is generalized and heterogeneous at the state level. That is why, the paper’s aim is to quantify it at national and subnational level both through the percentage of excess mortality (% EM) and using differences in life expectancies (EMex) by sex. For (EMex) , mortality tables are constructed with specific rates that are estimated through a non-parametric approach so-called controlled and segmented smoothing. The results show the greatest excesses in male population and for some states of the country. Likewise, regarding EMex, strong setbacks in life expectancy can be observed including the Mexico City.
Downloads
References
Aburto, J. M., Schöley, J., Zhang, L., Kashnitsky, I., Rahal, C., Missov, T. I., ... y Kashyap, R. (2021). Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life expectancy losses. Int J Epidemiol [Online ahead of print]. DOI:10.1093/ije/dyab207 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.02.21252772
Andrasfay, T. y Goldman, N. (2020). Reductions in 2020 US life expectancy due to COVID-19 and the disproportionate impact on the Black and Latino populations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(5). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014746118 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2014746118
Cárdenas, R. (2021). Una mirada de factores y un desenlace funesto: la mortalidad por COVID-19 en México. Coyuntura Demográfica. Revista sobre los procesos demográficos en México hoy, 1(19). http://coyunturademografica.somede.org/una-miriada-de-factores-y-un-desenlace-funesto-la-mortalidad-por-covid-19-en-mexico/
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (2007). Esperanza de vida al nacer. Estimaciones y proyecciones del CELADE. División de Población de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe, Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía. https://celade.cepal.org/redatam/PRYESP/CAIRO/WebHelp/Metalatina/cairohelp.htm#esperanza_de_vida_al_nacer.htm
Consejo Nacional de Población (2018). Proyecciones de la Población de México y de las Entidades Federativas 2016-2050. https://datos.gob.mx/busca/dataset/proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas-2016-2050
Cortés-Meda, A., y Ponciano-Rodríguez, G. (2021). Impacto de los determinantes sociales de la COVID-19 en México. Salud pública y Epidemiología, 2(17), 1-13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52102/diabet/pract/gestiondiabetes/art2
Domínguez, L., Rodríguez, F., Sosa, F., Santos, G., y Cortés, P. (2020). The role of metabolic comorbidity in COVID-19 mortality of middle-aged adults. Medrix, The preprint server for health sciences. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.15.20244160 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.15.20244160
Goldstein, J. R. y Lee R. D. (2020). Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 137(36). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006392117 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w27043
González, L. M., y Pou, S. A. (2020). Estimación del exceso de mortalidad por COVID-19 mediante los años de vida perdidos: impacto potencial en la Argentina en 2020. Notas de Población, 47(111), 85-104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18356/16810333-47-111-5
Guerrero, V. M. y Silva, E. (2015). Smoothing a Time Series by Segments of the Data Range. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 44(21), 4568-4585. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2014.901372 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2014.901372
Heligman, L. y Pollard, J. H. (1980). The age pattern of mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (1886-1994), 107(1), 49-80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020268100040257
Hernández, H. (2020). Mortalidad por COVID-19 en México. Notas preliminares para un perfil sociodemográfico. Notas de coyuntura del CRIM (36). https://web.crim.unam.mx/sites/default/files/2020-06/crim_036_hector-hernandez_mortalidad-por-covid-19_0.pdf
Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática (2020). Características de las defunciones registradas en México durante enero a agosto 2020 [Archivo PDF]. https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2021/EstSociodemo/DefuncionesRegistradas2020_Pnles.pdf
Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática (2020a). Censo de Población y Vivienda 2020. https://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/Olap/Proyectos/bd/censos/cpv2020/pt.asp
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública (2020). Grupo Interinstitucional para la estimación del exceso de mortalidad por todas las causas. Boletín Estadístico sobre el exceso de mortalidad por todas las causas durante la emergencia por COVID-19 45(7). https://coronavirus.gob.mx/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Boletin_VII_Exceso_Mortalidad_SE45_MX.pdf
Johns Hopkins University. (2021). COVID-19 Data in Motion: Wednesday, May 12, 2021. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu
Kanter, I. (2020). Muertes por COVID-19 en México. Mirada Legislativa (190). http://www.bibliodigitalibd.senado.gob.mx/bitstream/handle/123456789/4927/ML_190.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Krieger, N., Chen, J. T. y Waterman, P. D. (2020). Excess mortality in men and women in Massachusetts during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet, 395(1829). https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)31234-4.pdf DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31234-4
Lawal, Y. (2021). Africa’s low COVID-19 mortality rate: A paradox?. International journal of infectious diseases, 102, 118-122. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.038
Mejía, L. S. P., Fernández, J. L. W., Hernández, I. O., Ridaura, R. L., Ramírez, H. L. G., Ávila, M. H., y Ávila, J. E. H. (2021). Estimación del exceso de mortalidad por todas las causas durante la pandemia del COVID-19 en México. Salud Pública de México, 63(2), 211-224. DOI:https://doi.org/10.21149/12225 DOI: https://doi.org/10.21149/12225
Narro, J., Urbina, M., Castro, R., Palma, J y Palma, Y. (1984). Evolución reciente de la mortalidad en México. Comercio Exterior, 34(7), 636-646.
Nogueira, P. J., Nobre, M. D. A., Nicola, P. J., Furtado, C. y Carneiro, A. V. (2020). Excess Mortality Estimation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Preliminary Data from Portugal. Acta Médica Portuguesa, 33(6), 376-383. DOI:https://doi.org/10.20344/amp.13928 DOI: https://doi.org/10.20344/amp.13928
Organización Mundial de la Salud (2020). Según una encuesta mundial de la OMS, el 90 % de los países han sufrido interrupciones de sus servicios de salud esenciales desde el inicio de la pandemia de COVID-19 [Mensaje en un blog]. https://www.who.int/es/news/item/31-08-2020-in-who-global-pulse-survey-90-of-countries-report-disruptions-to-essential-health-services-since-covid-19-pandemic
Peláez, Ó. (2009). Descripción y proyección de la esperanza de vida al nacimiento en México (1900-2050). Estudios demográficos y urbanos, 24(2), 469-492. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v24i2.1341
Pesci, S., Marín, L., Wright, R., Kreplak, N., Ceriani, L., Bolzán, … y Varela, T. (2021). Exceso de mortalidad por la pandemia de COVID-19 durante 2020 en la provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina. Revista Argentina de Salud Pública, 13(1), 13. http://www.scielo.org.ar/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1853-810X2021000200013&lng=es&tlng=es.
Pinzón, J. E. D. (2020). Estimación de las tasas de mortalidad y letalidad por COVID-19 en Colombia. Revista Repertorio de Medicina y Cirugía, 29(1), 89-93. https://revistas.fucsalud.edu.co/index.php/repertorio/article/view/1103/1341 DOI: https://doi.org/10.31260/RepertMedCir.01217372.1103
Ruvalcaba, J. C., Beltrán, M. G., Benítez, A., Santiago, D., García, F., Toribio, J., ... y Peña, E. M. (2020). Una reflexión en torno a atención primaria en aalud y la pandemia por SARS COVID-2; COVID-19 en México ante la confusión en la comunicación. Journal of Negative and No Positive Results, 5(6), 631-643.
Sánchez, M., González, E., Sepúlveda, J., Abascal, L., Fieldhouse, J., Del Río, C. y Gallalee, S. (2021). Mexico's response to COVID-19: A case study [Archivo PDF]. https://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/sites/globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/files/mexico-covid-19-case-study-english.pdf
Silva, E., Islas-Camargo, A. y Guerrero, M. V. (in press) Esperanza de vida en torno a la joroba de mortalidad masculina en México con suavizamiento controlado por segmentos. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos.
Secretaría de Salud (2020). Base de datos de Exceso de mortalidad. México.
Vandoros, S. (2020). Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales. Medrix The preprint server for health sciences. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065706 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.14.20065706
Yusuf, F., Martins, J. M., Swanson, D. A., Martins, J. M. y Swanson, D. A. (2014). Methods of demographic analysis. Springer. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6784-3
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Jose Eliud Silva Urrutia, Andrea Peralta, Eric Peralta

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Population and Health in Mesoamerica informs its authors and readers that all publications must be submitted with the Letter of Acceptance of Copyright Conditions where the authors are asked for authorization to submit the article to the Journal for consideration so that it may carry out any of the following activities:
- The graphic and style editing of the work or part of it.
The publication and reproduction of the work or part of it, both in print and electronic media, including the Internet and any other known or unknown technology.
The translation of the work or part of it into any language or dialect.
The adaptation of the work to reading, sound, voice and any other available technical representation or mechanism, which makes possible its access for partially or totally blind people, or with any other form of special abilities that prevent their access to the conventional reading of the article.
The distribution and availability of the work to the public, in such a way that the public may have access to them from the time and place that each person chooses, through the physical or electronic mechanisms available to them.
Any other form of use, process or system known or to be known that is related to the activities and editorial purposes to which the Journal is linked.
You can access the Letter by clicking HERE. If you have a question, please write to revista.ccp@ucr.ac.cr
In addition, the content of this site is protected under the Attribution - Noncommercial - Share Alike (by-nc-sa) license which permits commercial use of the original work or derivative works and distribution of which must be made under the same license that governs the original work. The graphic design, images and texts generated by the e-Information Science magazine are property of the Universidad de Costa Rica and are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution - NonCommercial - Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International.
Authors who publish in this journal accept the following conditions:
-The authors retain their moral rights over the publication and assign the patrimonial rights mentioned in the Letter of Assignment of Rights with the Creative Commons Attribution - NonCommercial - Compatitr Equal 4.0 International license, which allows third parties to use what is published as long as they mention the authorship of the work and to the first publication in this journal.
-Authors may make other independent and additional contractual arrangements for non-exclusive distribution of the version of the article published in this journal (e.g., inclusion in an institutional repository or publication in a book) as long as they clearly indicate that the work was first published in this journal.
This policy is established in accordance with Law 6638 on Copyright and Related Rights of the Republic of Costa Rica.
