Regional trends and differences in male homicides by firearms in a state in the Legal Amazon, Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15517/psm.v18i2.43577Keywords:
Homicide, Gun violence, Health Status Disparities, MenAbstract
Objectives: To analyze the trend from 1996 to 2017 and to project until 2022 the rate of homicides by firearms in young men, according to the health macro-region, in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. Methodology: Ecological study that used data from the Mortality Information System. Mortality rates standardized by the world population were calculated. To model the series and predict the firearm homicide rate for the period from 2018 to 2022, the order one autoregressive model - AR (1) was used. Results: The standardized homicide rates indicated marked differences between the macroregions studied, revealing that the Centro Norte macroregion leads firearm mortality in most years and the lowest rate in the period occurred in 2013, in the Eastern macroregion. There was an increasing and significant trend in the rate of homicide by firearms for half of the macro-regions - North, West, South - and for the state of Mato Grosso, while for the East, Central North and Central Northwest macroregions the rates remained stable. Conclusion: The mortality of young males by firearms was high especially in the most urbanized macro-regions, with agrarian conflicts and the border region. If the strategies are not changed, homicide rates of young men by firearms in Mato Grosso will continue to be high and / or increasing.
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