Archivos suplementarios
Palabras clave
coseismic-landslides
Scenario
Natural hazards
Costa Rica
Terremotos
Deslizamientos-cosísmicos
Escenarios
Peligros
Costa Rica
Cómo citar
Resumen
Se muestran las capacidades de la modelación de escenarios de terremotos hipotéticos como una herramienta para la evaluación de la amenaza de deslizamientos cosismicos. El entorno geológico - tectónico de Costa Rica y sus características orográficas resultaron ideales para probar esta técnica. El modelo trabaja con: pendiente del terreno, velocidad máxima del suelo (VMS), índice topográfico compuesto (ITC), magnitud y profundidad del sismo disparador para pronosticar la probabilidad de deslizamientos y sus efectos. Se examinaron 5 ambientes tectónicos, eventos de subducción en las penínsulas de (1) Nicoya y (2) Osa respectivamente, (3) eventos intraplaca bajo la Cordillera Volcánica Central (CVC) y el (4) Cinturón Deformado del Centro de Costa Rica y (5) eventos en el tras-arco en el Caribe. Los resultados muestran variabilidad en los valores de umbral de pendientes VMS e ITC dependiente del ambiente modelado, para producir probabilidades de disparo de deslizamientos superiores al 10 %. La magnitud del sismo es siempre el principal controlador de la probabilidad máxima de ocurrencia de deslizamientos. Se validaron las predicciones del modelo comparando los resultados con inventarios de deslizamientos observados en los terremotos de Cinchona (2009) y Limón (1991), donde más del 70% de los deslizamientos ocurrieron en zonas con una probabilidad > 20%. Finalmente utilizamos un modelo global de impacto de deslizamientos para predecir los rangos de exposición y letalidad para cada escenario, revelando que los terremotos de tamaño moderado en CDCCR y CVC y los grandes terremotos de subducción representan un peligro potencial significativo para la población de Costa Rica.
Citas
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Derechos de autor 2022 Dylan M. Seal, M. Anna Nowicki Jessee, Michael W. Hamburger, Paulo Ruiz