MONRATE: A descriptive tool for calculation and prediction of re-infection of Ascaris lumbricoides (Ascaridida: Ascarididae)

Abstract

The study presents an interactive descriptive tool (MONRATE) for calculating and predicting reinfection rates and time of Ascaris lumbricoides following mass chemotherapy. The implementation was based on the theoretical equation published by Hayashi in 1977, for time-prevalence: Y=G [1-(1-X)N-R] as modified by Jong-Yil in 1983. Using the Psuedo-Code of the MONRATE tool, the calculated monthly reinfection rates (X) for the LGAs are (names are locations in Nigeria in a region predominately populated by the Yoruba speaking tribes of Nigeria whose traditional occupations are agriculture and commerce): Ewekoro (1.6 %), Odeda (2.3 %), Ado-odo/Otta (2.3 %), Ogun Waterside (3.8 %) and Obafemi/Owode (4.2 %). The mathematical mean of 'X' values in the study areas for Ogun State was 2.84. The calculated reinfection time (N months) for the LGAs are varied such as Ado-odo/Otta (12.7), Ogun Waterside (21.8), Obafemi/Owode (22.92), Odeda (25.45), and Ewekoro (25.9). The mean value for N in Ogun State was 21.75. The results obtained from MONRATE were compared with those obtained using the mathematical equation and found to be the same.