Palabras clave
Modelación matemática
Variantes de SARS-CoV-2
Epidemiología matemática
Sistemas no lineales de EDO
COVID-19
Mathematical modelling
SARS-CoV-2 variants
Mathematical epidemiology
Nonlinear systems of ODEs
Cómo citar
Resumen
En este artículo, desarrollamos modelos matemáticos sucesivos para describir la primera y la segunda ola de COVID-19 en Brasil, incluida la cepa original, las dos variantes de mayor circulación (variantes Gamma y Delta) y la vacunación de la población. Partimos de un modelo inicial simple y utilizando técnicas de modelado matemático y la función escalón de Heaviside, lo mejoramos según las necesidades de describir el comportamiento de la enfermedad, tanto considerando las nuevas variantes como la vacunación. En todos los casos, realizamos simulaciones informáticas y comparamos la curva obtenida con datos reales de los casos activos, lo que reforzó la eficiencia del modelo para describir el comportamiento de la pandemia y destacó la importancia de la vacunación de la población para describir la dinámica de los contagios y reducir los casos.
Citas
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Derechos de autor 2023 Marina Lima, Anny Silva, João Frederico Meyer