Palabras clave
climate change;
RCP 8.5;
BIOMOD2;
dolphinfish;
tropicalization of marine ecosystems
Coryphaena hippurus;
cambio climático;
RCP 8.5;
BIOMOD2;
dorado;
tropicalización ecosistemas marinos
Cómo citar
Resumen
Introducción: Coryphaena hippurus es una especie migratoria de interés comercial, que se encuentra en ambientes tropicales y subtropicales, prefiriendo zonas con un rango de temperatura entre 21 y 30 °C y salinidad cercana a 31 ppt. Aunque la tendencia poblacional del dorado es estable, la pesquería de este recurso está aumentando y ocupa importantes posiciones en la economía de países costeros del Pacífico Oriental Tropical, evidenciándose la necesidad de diseñar y fortalecer estrategias de conservación y mejorar el aprovechamiento de este recurso. Dada su ubicación en ambientes tropicales y subtropicales, la disponibilidad y distribución de este recurso podría verse afectado a futuro por el cambio climático. Objetivo: Analizar la distribución potencial actual y futura de C. hippurus bajo condiciones de cambio climático. Métodos: Se emplearon 10 algoritmos para modelar la distribución potencial e idoneidad de hábitat actual para C. hippurus a partir de la temperatura superficial del mar, la salinidad y velocidad de las corrientes, posteriormente se proyectaron estos resultados según el escenario de cambio climático más extremo. Resultados: Hubo buenos desempeños con todos los algoritmos empleados, pero se escogió el modelo generado con BIOCLIM (AUC: 0.89) pues además resuelve el inconveniente del sesgo espacial y temporal hallado en los registros de la especie. La región de mayor idoneidad de hábitat para C. hippurus coincide con los frentes oceánicos del Pacífico Oriental Tropical. En condiciones futuras de cambio climático extremo, el modelo de distribución de la especie indica una contracción, reubicación y expansión de hábitat hacia el sur de la línea ecuatorial. Conclusiones: En condiciones de cambio climático extremo, el modelo de distribución para C. hippurus sugiere un proceso de tropicalización de los ecosistemas marinos en el Pacífico Oriental Tropical para el año 2100.
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