Does Happiness Drive Fertility? Evidence from eleven countries

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15517/ekqat846

Keywords:

intended fertility, happiness, Latin America

Abstract

Introduction: We studied the effect of happiness on intended fertility using eleven countries. Happier people tended to have more intended fertility, and gender, age, and work status explained observed differences. Methodology: An exploratory quantitative approach was employed using data from 16,474 participants from the 2018 Global Family and Faith Survey across 11 countries. The relationship between happiness and intended fertility was examined through descriptive statistics and frequency histograms to assess variable distributions and identify overdispersion in the count data. Subsequently, a negative binomial regression model —a generalized Poisson model incorporating Gamma-distributed random effects— was estimated to evaluate the effect of happiness and sociodemographic variables on the intended number of additional children. Results: Different initial parities allowed observing the differences in the distribution and determinants of the number of children respondents wanted to have, conditional to happiness. At parity zero having a stable partner and belonging to the Latin American region became significant. Conclusions: Having a stable partner exerted a positive influence, while respondents in Latin America are willing to have less children than those of other world regions. Work status is not significant or parity one respondents. For parity two, only age and gender mattered, not happiness. Happiness, gender, age, and having a stable partner are again relevant variables at parity three. Implications: These findings shed light on the debate on current intended fertility determinants at low and lowest low scenarios of fertility around the world.

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Author Biographies

  • Andrés Salazar-Arango, Universidad de La Sabana, COLOMBIA

    Andrés Salazar-Arango cursó estudios de Maestría en Geografía de la Universidad de Navarra (España, 1986) y Maestría en Planificación y Administración del Desarrollo Regional de la Universidad de Los Andes (Colombia, 2003). Es Profesor Asistente e Investigador en el Instituto de La Familia en la Universidad de La Sabana (Colombia). Miembro de la International Union For The Scientific Study of Population, e investigador del World Family Map Project. Su investigación se centra en demografía de la familia, estilos de vida de los jóvenes, sostenibilidad de la familia y fecundidad adolescente. Experto Internacional Universitario en Resiliencia y Coaching Profesional (2017)

  • José Gómez-González, Lehman College, City University of New York, Bronx, NY, ESTADOS UNIDOS

    Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez is an Associate Professor of Finance and Economics for Lehman College of The City University of New York. He did his undergraduate studies in Bogotá, Colombia. After obtaining a B.A. degree in economics from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, he pursued graduate studies at Cornell University, receiving an M.A. and a Ph.D. in Economics. His fields of interest are financial economics, macroeconomics, and real estate finance. He is passionate for teaching. He worked for the Central Bank of Colombia, holding several senior-level positions like director of the Department of Market Operations and Development. Jose also worked for several Colombian universities. He has published widely in leading economics, finance, and real estate journals

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Published

2026-07-14

Issue

Volume 24, Issue 1: july-december 2026 (in progress)

Section

Scientific articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Iván Darío Moreno-Acero, Andrés Salazar-Arango, José Gómez-González (Author)

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