Palabras clave
dengue
climate variables
Costa Rica
generalized additive models
random forests
enfermedades de trasmisión vectorial
dengue
variables climáticas
Costa Rica
modelos aditivos generalizados
bosques aleatorios
Cómo citar
Resumen
En países tropicales y subtropicales alrededor del mundo, el clima ha sido un factor fundamental en moldear la distribución geográfica e incidencia de los casos de dengue. En Costa Rica, un país tropical con múltiples microclimas, el dengue ha sido endémico desde 1993, con repercusiones no solo en el ámbito de la salud, sino también en el social y económico. Utilizando el número de casos de dengue y los datos climáticos del 2007-2017, ajustamos un modelo predictivo mediante un enfoque de Modelo Aditivo Generalizado y Random Forest, el cual nos permitió predecir de forma retrospectiva el riesgo relativo de dengue en cinco cantones alrededor del país.
Citas
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