Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones ISSN Impreso: 1409-2433 ISSN electrónico: 2215-3373

OAI: https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/oai
Variables climáticas como predictores de la incidencia de dengue en Costa Rica: un enfoque de modelo aditivo generalizado y bosques aleatorios
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Palabras clave

mosquito-borne diseases
dengue
climate variables
Costa Rica
generalized additive models
random forests enfermedades de trasmisión vectorial
dengue
variables climáticas
Costa Rica
modelos aditivos generalizados
bosques aleatorios

Cómo citar

Vásquez, P., Loría, A., Sánchez, F., & Barboza, L. A. (2019). Variables climáticas como predictores de la incidencia de dengue en Costa Rica: un enfoque de modelo aditivo generalizado y bosques aleatorios. Revista De Matemática: Teoría Y Aplicaciones, 27(1), 1–21. https://doi.org/10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39931

Resumen

En países tropicales y subtropicales alrededor del mundo, el clima ha sido un factor fundamental en moldear la distribución geográfica e incidencia de los casos de dengue. En Costa Rica, un país tropical con múltiples microclimas, el dengue ha sido endémico desde 1993, con repercusiones no solo en el ámbito de la salud, sino también en el social y económico. Utilizando el número de casos de dengue y los datos climáticos del 2007-2017, ajustamos un modelo predictivo mediante un enfoque de Modelo Aditivo Generalizado y Random Forest, el cual nos permitió predecir de forma retrospectiva el riesgo relativo de dengue en cinco cantones alrededor del país.

https://doi.org/10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39931
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