Keywords
dengue
climate variables
Costa Rica
generalized additive models
random forests
enfermedades de trasmisión vectorial
dengue
variables climáticas
Costa Rica
modelos aditivos generalizados
bosques aleatorios
How to Cite
Abstract
Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its introduction in 1993, inflicting substantial economic, social, and public health repercussions. Using the number of dengue reported cases and climate data from 2007-2017, we fitted a prediction model applying a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Random Forest (RF) approach, which allowed us to retrospectively predict the relative risk of dengue in five climatological diverse municipalities around the country.
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