Palabras clave
Gompertz mixture
Poisson process
Cox process
COVID-19
Mezcla de Gompertz
Proceso de Poisson
Proceso de Cox
Cómo citar
Resumen
Diferentes países usaron la función de crecimiento Gompertz al principio de la pandemia por COVID-19 para modelar el numero acumulado de infectados dado que proporcionaba un ajuste razonable. Este modelo permite una única moda, pero la pandemia evoluciono exhibiendo un comportamiento multimodal debido a las diferentes olas y variantes del COVID-19. Por tanto, el modelo Gompertz clásico de crecimiento no ajusta bien para describir una pandemia larga con diferentes variantes del virus. Este trabajo presenta generalizaciones del modelo Gompertz donde se pueda capturar un comportamiento multimodal para modelar la dinámica de los casos infectados. Este modelo es aplicado a datos de COVID-19 de Nuevo León, México.
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Derechos de autor 2023 Graciela Gonzalez Farias, Roberto Vásquez Martínez, José Ulises Márquez Urbina, Rogelio Ramos Quiroga