Environmental aptitude area of four C4 grasses of Western Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15517/k5v4mn16Keywords:
Climate change, Grasslands, Modelling, Simulation, Representative concentration pathwaysAbstract
Introduction. Grasslands are habitats for numerous species, provide various ecosystem services, and can contribute to carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Objective. To analyze the future environmental aptitude area for four C4 forage grasses in the dry tropics of Western Mexico under different scenarios. Materials and methods. Study sites include the dry tropics of the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, located in Western Mexico. Fifteen bioclimatic variables were used and processed with the Idrisi Selva software. Reference climate data corresponding to the period 1970-2000 and future climate scenarios with the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 periods were employed. The MaxEnt model was used to analyze the environmental aptitude area (EAA) of Bouteloua curtipendula, Brachiaria fasciculata, Sorghastrum nutans, and Tripsacum dactyloides. Results. MaxEnt model showed that in future scenarios precipitation will have an increase in Sierra Madre Occidental, Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and the Pacific Ocean watershed, while Jalisco State will suffer a reduction; the average annual temperature in the study region will increase between 1,7 °C and 2,6 °C in the future scenarios compared to the current climate. In addition, climate zones such as sub-humid tropic, and semi-arid tropic will increase their area, meanwhile, sub-tropic semi-arid will have a reduction. The models for the years 2060 and 2080 suggest that the environmental aptitude area for B. curtipendula, B. fasciculata, S. nutans, and T. dactyloides will decrease in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; however, only B. curtipendula will increase in the period 2041-2060 (RCP4.5). Conclusions. Temperature and precipitation alterations throughout the region will modify the length and shifts of seasonal heat and modify climatic zones, which will cause a decrease in the environmental aptitude area of grasses analyzed from Western Mexico.
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Copyright (c) 2026 José Ángel Martínez-Sifuentes, Humberto Ramírez-Vega, Darwin Heredia-Nava, José Germán Flores-Garnica, Luis Alonso Villalobos-Villalobos, Víctor Manuel Gómez-Rodríguez (Autor/a)
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