Keywords
SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
COX REGRESSION
EXPORTS
How to Cite
Abstract
Based on data on Costa Rican exports for the period 2000–2008, broken down by firm, exported products, and destination markets, this study seeks to identify the factors related to a firm’s decisions that increase or decrease the likelihood of exiting the foreign market. This study quantifies the impact of a series of factors, using a survival rate that weights the years of export activity by the duration of transactions and the number of times each firm exited the foreign market. A survival analysis of exporting firms operating in Costa Rica is presented, based on a Cox proportional hazards model and the Kaplan-Meier estimator. The study confirms the importance of export diversification for the survival of exporting firms.
References
Álvarez, Roberto y Ricardo López; (2008). “Entry and Exit in International Mercados: Evidence from Chilean data.” Review of International Economics; vol. 16, pp. 692-708
Audretsch, David B. y Talat Mahmood; (1994). “The Rate of Hazard Confronting New Firms and Plants in the U.S. Manufacturing.” Review of Industrial Organization; vol. 9, pp. 41-56.
Audretsch, David B. y Talat Mahmood; (1995). “New Firm Survival: New results Using a Hazard Function.” The Review of Economics and Statistics; vol. 77, pp. 97-103.
Baldwin, Richard y Paul Krugman, P.; (1989). “Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks”. Quarterly Journal of Economics; vol. 104, pp. 633654.
Bernard, Andrew B. y J. Bradford Jensen; (2007). “Firm structure, Multinationals and Manufacturing Plant Deaths.” Review of Economics and Statistics; vol. 89, pp. 193-204.
Bernard, Andrew B. y J. Bradford Jensen; (2002). The Deaths of Manufacturing Plants. NBER Working Paper 9026. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Eaton, Jonathan et al; (2007). “Export Dynamics in Colombia: Firm Level Evidence.” NBER Working Papers 13531.
Feenstra, Robert C.; (2002). Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence.
Gutiérrez, Roberto G.; (2002). “Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models.” The Stata Journal; vol. 2, pp. 22–44.
Helpman, Elhanan y Paul Krugman; (1985). Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy. The MIT Press.
Kiefer, Nicholas M.; (1988). “Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions.” Journal of Economic Literature; vol. 26, pp. 646-679.
Kovacevic, Milorad S. (2002). Modelling Multiple Unemployment Spells from Longitudinal Survey Data. Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section, American Statistical Association.
Jovanovic, Boyan; (1982). “Selection and the Evolution of Industry.” Econometrica; vol. 50, pp. 649-670.
Lin, D. Y. y L. J. Wei; (1989). “The Robust Inference for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association; vol. 84, pp. 1074-1078.
Meyer, Bruce D. (1990). “Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells”. Econometrica, 58(4), (p: 757-782).
Nitsch, Volker; (2007). “Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade.” CESifo Working Paper 2085. CESifo, Munich.
van der Berg, Gerard J.; (2001). “Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations.” Handbook of Econometrics; vol. 5, pp. 3381-3460.
Rivera, Luis; (2010). Desempeño de las micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas exportadoras en Costa Rica. Ponencia preparada para el Decimosexto Informe Estado de la Nación. San José, Programa Estado de la Nación.
Bernard, Andrew B et al; (2006). Multi-Product Firms and Trade Liberalization, NBER Working Papers 12782, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bernard, Andrew y Joachim Wagner; (2001). “Export entry and exit by German firms”. Review of World Economics; vol. 127, pp. 105-207.
Besedes, Tibor y Thomas J. Prusa; (2006a). “Ins, outs, and the duration of trade”. Canadian Journal of Economics; vol. 39, pp. 266-295.
Besedes, Tibor y Thomas J. Prusa; (2006b). “Product differentiation and duration of US import trade.” Journal of International Economics; vol. 70, pp. 339-358.
Broda, Christian y David Weinstein; (2006). “Globalization and the gains from trade.” Quarterly Journal of Economics; vol. 121, pp. 541-585.
Carballo, Jerónimo; (2007). La duración de las exportaciones. Evidencia a nivel de firma y transaccional. Colombia 20002006. Tesis de Maestría de Economía, University of La Plata, Argentina.
Clayton, David y Jack Cuzick; (1985). “Multivariate Generalizations of the Proportional Hazard Model.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society; vol. 148, pp. 82-117.
Cox, David R.; (1972). “Regression Models and Life Tables.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society; vol. 34, pp. 187-220.
Das, Sanghamitra et al; (2007). “Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics.” Econometrica; vol. 75, pp. 837-873.
Dolton, Peter y Wilbert van der Klaaw; (1995). “Leaving Teaching in the UK: A Duration Analysis.” Economic Journal; vol. 105, pp. 431-444.
Dunne, Timothy et al; (2005). “Exit from regional manufacturing mercados: The role of entrant experience.” International Journal of Industrial Organization; vol. 23, pp. 399-421.
Sabuhoro, Jean Bosco; (2006). “Factors Determining the Successor Failure of Canadian Establishments on Foreign Mercados: A Survival Analysis Approach.” The International Trade Journal; vol. 20, pp. 33-73.
Volpe, Christian y Carballo, Jerónimo; (2009). “Survival of New Exporters in Developing Countries: does it matter how they diversify?” IDB working paper series: 140. Washington D.C.: Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo.
Zorn, Beck y Jones. Unobserved Heterogeneity. Notas. NYU, https://files.nyu.edu/mrg217/public/duration3.pdf
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 Unported License.
Copyright (c) 2012 Carlos E. Umaña