Keywords
EXTERNAL BALANCE
EMERGING MARKET
MODELOS DE SUPERVIVENCIA
BALANCE EXTERNO
MERCADOS EMERGENTES
How to Cite
Abstract
Using a survival model approach using data panel, an exploratory analysis is made to estimate the probability of a sudden current account correction in Costa Rica. The results show that the estimated probability of a current account reversal decreases when: i) the five years ahead real-growth increases, ii) the external situation of similar countries improves, iii) the economic dependency ratio increases, iv) the world’s GDP percentage for which the country have signed a trade agreement increases, v) reserves accumulation accelerates and vi) the institutional framework becomes more democratic. On the other hand, an increase in the total factor productivity (TFP) growth 5-year ahead raises likelihood of a reversal. The effect of capital controls on the probability showed an ambiguous behavior. Annual data from 1981 to 2012 for 116 countries is used.References
Allison, P. (2010). Survival Analysis. En G. Hancock. & R. Mueller, (Ed.). The Reviewer’s Guide to Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, (pp 413-424). New York: Routledge.
Bugamelli, M. & Paternò, F. (2009). Do workers’ remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals?. World Development, 37(12), 1821-1838. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.04.002
Cameron, A. C. y Trivedi, P. (2009). Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Chinn, M. D. y Ito, H. (2008). A new measure of financial openness. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis, 10(3), 309-322. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13876980802231123
Calvo G. (Noviembre, 1998). Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden
Stops. Journal of Applied Economics, 1(1), 35-54. Recuperado de https://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume1/calvo.pdf
De Sousa, J. (2012). The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time. Economics Letters,117(3), 917-920. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.07.009
Edwards, S. (2004). Financial openness, sudden stops and current account reversals. (Working Paper
, National Bureau of Economic Research.
http://dx.doi.org/ 10.3386/w10277
Edwards, S. (Marzo, 2005). Capital controls, sudden stops and current account reversals. (Working Paper 11170), National Bureau of Economic Research. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11170
Eichengreen, B. y Adalet, M. (2005). Current account reversals: Always a problem?. (Working Paper 11634), National Bureau of Economic Research. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11634
Ferretti, G. M. M. y Razin, A. (2000). Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises, Empirical Regularities. En P. Krugman (Ed.), Currency Crises, (pp. 285-326). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w6620
Fouré, J., Bénassy-Quéré, A., & Fontagné, L. (2010). The world economy in 2050: a tentative picture.(Working Papers 2010-27), CEPII research center.
Recuperado de http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/publications/wp/abstract.asp?NoDoc=2800
Greene, W. (2012). Econometric Analysis. New York: Pearson.
Golder, M. (2013). Discrete time duration models: BTSCS. introduction to duration models. Class notes. Department of Political Science at Pennsylvania State University. Recuperado de
http://jdemeritt.weebly.com/uploads/2/2/7/7/22771764/maths1.pdf
Gutierrez, R. G. (2002). Parametric frailty and shared frailty survival models. The Stata Journal, 2(1), 22-44. Recuperado de http://www.stata-journal.com/sjpdf.html?articlenum=st0006
Hess, W. y Persson, M. (2010). The duration of trade revisited: Continuous-time vs. discrete-time hazards.
(Working Paper Series 829), Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
Iceland, J. (1997). The dynamics of poverty spells and issues of left-censoring. (PSC Research Report No. 97-378). Population Studies Center. University of Michigan.Fondo Monetario Internacional (2007). World Economic Outlook, April 2007. International Monetary Fund. Recuperado de https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/index.htm
Fondo Monetario Internacional (2008). World Economic Outlook, October 2008. International Monetary Fund. Recuperado de https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/pdf/text.pdf
Jauregui, J. M. (2006). The persistence of the current account surplus following an external sector crisis. Recuperado de http://resources.rybinski.eu/resources/sendFile:199e018a-be5a-11de-85be-001b24eff4d8:1
Jenkins, S. (2004). Survival analysis. (Documento inédito), Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Colchester, UK.
Kintanar, K. A. U. (2009). On the duration of large current account imbalances. (tesis doctoral, Department of Economics. Fordham University). Recuperado de http://fordham.bepress.com/dissertations/
AAI3384640/Lancaster, T. (1992). The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data. Econometric Society Monographs. Cambridge University Press.
Liu, X. (2012). Survival Analysis: Models and Applications. Wiley.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118307656 Marshall, Monty, G., G. T. R. y Jaggers, K. (2013). Polity ™ IV Project. Political Regime Characteristics
and Transitions, 1800-2012. Center for Systemic Peace.
Milesi-Ferrett, G. M. & Razin, A. (1997). Sharp reductions in current account deficits: An empirical analysis. (NBER Working Papers 6310), National Bureau of Economic Research. Recuperado de https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97168.pdf
Monge C. y Torres C. (2010). Costa Rica: Estimación del déficit en Cuenta Corriente coherente con flujos de capital de largo plazo sostenibles. Periodo 1999-2009. Banco Central de Costa Rica.
DEC-DIE-DT-05-2010. Recuperado de http://www.bccr.fi.cr/investigacioneseconomicas/politicacambiariaysectorexterno/Deficit_en_cuenta_corriente_coherente_con_flujos_de_capital_de_largo_plazo.pdf
Obstfeld, M. & Rogoff, K. (2000). The six major puzzles in international macroeconomics: Is there a common cause?. Working Paper 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research.http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w7777
Programa Estado de la Nación (2012). Decimoctavo Informe Estado de la Nación en Desarrollo Humano Sostenible. San José, Estado de la Nación.Recuperado de
http://estadonacion.or.cr/index-en/informe-xviii-estado-nacion
Rose, A. K., Supaat, S. y Braude, J. (Mayo, 2009). Fertility and the real exchange rate. Canadian Journal of Economics, 42(2), 496-518. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01517.x
Singer, J. D. y Willet, J. B. (1993). It´s about time: using discrete-time survival analysis to study duration
and the timing of events. Journal of Educational Statistics, 18(2), 155-195. http://dx.doi.org/10.3102/10769986018002155
StataCorp (2013). Stata Survival Analysis and epidemiological tables. Reference Manual. Release 13.
Recuperado de http://www.stata.com/manuals13/st.pdf
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2008). Trade and development report. Recuperado de http://unctad.org/en/Pages/Publications/TradeandDevelopmentReport.aspx