Revista de Matemática: Teoría y Aplicaciones ISSN Impreso: 1409-2433 ISSN electrónico: 2215-3373

OAI: https://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/oai
Modelar la dinámica de votación en un sistema de dos partidos
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Palabras clave

Markov chain
dynamical system
voting behavior
peer influence
media influence
cadena de Markov
comportamiento electoral
influencia de pares
influencia de medios de comunicación

Cómo citar

Phan, T., Navas-Zuloaga, M. G., Ignace, C., Castillo-Garsow, C. W., Moreno, V. M., & Kribs, C. M. (2019). Modelar la dinámica de votación en un sistema de dos partidos. Revista De Matemática: Teoría Y Aplicaciones, 27(1), 179–219. https://doi.org/10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39970

Resumen

Las elecciones presidenciales de 2016 en los E.E.U.U., caracterizadas por resultados inesperados, proveen un contexto interesante para estudiar cómo son influenciados los ciudadanos en su decisión de voto. Nuestro objetivo es determinar qué cambios en la intención de voto tienen mayor impacto en el resultado. Con este fin desarrollamos una clase de modelos basados en o (1) los medios de comunicación masivos o (2) las interacciones entre los votantes y miembros de dos partidos. Dividimos a la población en cuatro compartimientos con una matriz de transición que describe la evolución de una cadena de Markov en tiempo discreto. Estudiamos cualitativamente cada modelo y utilizamos métodos numéricos para ajustar los parámetros a datos provenientes de encuestas previas a las elecciones de 2012 y 2016. Encontramos que la influencia social en cada grupo cambia de una elección a la siguiente, pero la respuesta a los medios de comunicación es similar en ambos casos.

https://doi.org/10.15517/rmta.v27i1.39970
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