Analysis of irrigated and rainfed rice production in Mexico, 1980-2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15517/ygtzeq03Keywords:
Elasticities of supply, irrigation, rainfed crops, simulationAbstract
Introduction. From 2016 to 2022, both the planted area and rice production in Mexico registered decreasing growth rates, leading to an increase in rice imports to satisfy the excess demand. Objective. To econometrically analyze the factors affecting rice production in Mexico by technology type, distinguishing between irrigated and rainfed systems. Materials and methods. A dynamic simultaneous equation model was formulated, comprising two supply equations, three price transmission models and one identity; with annual data from 1980 to 2022 on rice production in Mexico (differentiated by technology type), as well as the prices of competitive products, tradable inputs and climatic variables that determine them. To estimate the model, the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method was used and its statistical congruence was determined by means of the global significance of each equation through the F-test, its level of autocorrelation via the Durbin-Watson statistic, the individual significance of each coefficient through the Student’s t-test, and the normality of the variables with the Shapiro-Wilk test. Results. The own-price elasticities of supply for irrigated and rainfed rice were 0.6995 and 0.3871, respectively. The prices of competitive goods, particularly corn (-0.9896 and -1.2284) and wheat (-0.5279 and -0.9529), had the greatest impact on both types of supply. Conclusion. The rice supply, both irrigated and rainfed, responds positively to changes in producer prices, water availability for irrigation, and the annual average rainfall recorded in the country. Conversely, it responds negatively to changes in producer prices of competitive goods such as beans, corn, wheat, lentils and chickpeas, as well as to change in inputs such as the price of pesticides and fertilizers.
Downloads
References
Cap, E. J., Brescia, V. P., Lema, D. R., Berges, M., Casellas, K., Menezes, T., Piketty, M-G., Melo, O., Murguia, J. M., García, F., Caputi, P., & Lanfranco, B. (2006). Mercosur + 2: Estimation of supply and demand elasticities of agricultural products. projection to 2012 of baseline supply scenarios. National Institute of Agricultural Technology.
Cámara Nacional del Autotransporte de Carga. (s. f.). Estadísticas e indicadores del autotransporte de carga: 1980-2022. Gaceta Económica de la Cámara Nacional del Autotransporte de Carga.
Centro Virtual de Información sobre el Agua. (s. f.). Situación de las presas en México. Retrieved January 12, 2025 from https://agua.org.mx/categoria/informes-estadisticos/
Comisión Nacional del Agua. (s. f.). Estadísticas del agua en México: 1980-2022. Sistema de Información Nacional del Agua de la Comisión Nacional del Agua.
Consejo Nacional Agropecuario. (1995). Compendio estadístico del Sector Agroalimentario: Precio promedio LAB (estación de ferrocarril) de los fertilizantes y producción nacional. Consejo Coordinador Empresarial.
Cutts, M., & Hassan, R. (2003, October 2-3). An econometric model of the SADC maize sector [Contributed paper]. 41st Annual Conference of the Agricultural Economic Association of South Africa (AEASA), Pretoria, South Africa. http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/19075/1/cp03cu01.pdf
Favila Tello, A., & Herrera Corral, M. A. (2023). Competitividad Internacional del Arroz Mexicano: un análisis con base en datos de comercio exterior. RECAI Revista de Estudios en Contaduría, Administración e Informática, 12(35), 18–31. https://doi.org/10.36677/recai.v12i35.21268
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (n. d.). FAOSTAT- Production, trade and prices. Retrieved January 21, 2024 from https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2010). Econometría (5a ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Guzmán-Soria, E., De la Garza-Carranza, M. T., García-Salazar, J. A., Hernández-Martínez, J., & Rebollar-Rebollar, S. (2012). Determinantes de la oferta de maíz grano en México. Agronomía Mesoamericana, 23(2), 269–279. https://doi.org/10.15517/am.v23i2.6488
Guzmán-Soria, E., De la Garza-Carranza, M. T., García-Salazar, J. A., Rebollar-Rebollar, S., & Hernández-Martínez, J. (2019). Determinantes de la oferta de frijol por tipo de tecnología en México. Investigación y Ciencia de la Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, 27(76), 49–59. https://doi.org/10.33064/iycuaa2019761791
Imai, K. S., Gaiha, R., & Thapa, G. (2011). Supply response to changes in agricultural commodity prices in Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 22(1), 61–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2010.08.002
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. (s. f.). Precios e inflación. Retrieved January 19, 2024 from https://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/inpp/
Khan, S. U, Faisal, M. A., Haq, Z. U., Fahad, S., Ali, G., Khan, A. A., & Khan, I. (2019). Supply response of rice using time series data: Lessons from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan. Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Science, 18(4), 458–461. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jssas.2018.03.001
McKay, A., Morrissey, O., & Vaillant, C. (1999). Aggregate supply response in Tanzanian agriculture. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 8(1), 107–123. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199900000008
Mundlak, Y., Cavallo, D., & Domenech, R. (1989). Agriculture and Economic Growth in Argentina: 1913-84. International Food Policy Research Institute. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/42166/?v=pdf
Mythili, G. (2006). Supply Response of Indian Farmers: Pre and Post Reforms. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research. http://www.igidr.ac.in/pdf/publication/WP-2006-009.pdf
Parkin, M., & Loría, E. (2015). Microeconomía. Versión para Latinoamérica (11a ed.). Pearson Educación.
Ramírez-Gómez, M., Martínez-Covaleda, H. J., Ortiz-Hermida, L. X., González-Rodríguez, F. A., & Barrios-Urrutia, C. A. (2004). Respuestas de la oferta y la demanda agrícola en el marco de un TLC con Estados Unidos [Documento de trabajo No. 49 Observatorio Agrocadenas Colombia]. Ministerio de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural de Colombia. https://repositorio.iica.int/items/c61339f5-68a2-4d29-a6c1-9be05223e3ae/full
Rao, J. M. (1989). Agricultural supply response: A survey. Agricultural Economics, 3(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-5150(89)90036-4
Samuelson, P. A., & Nordhaus, W. D. (2010). Microeconomía con aplicaciones a Latinoamérica (19a ed.). McGraw-Hill.
SAS Institute. (2002). 2SLS Procedure in SAS System version 9.0. SAS Institute.
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. (s. f.). Temperatura y Precipitación media anual por estado y nacional. Retrieved January 27, 2024 from https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/temperaturas-y-lluvias/resumenes-mensuales-de-temperaturas-y-lluvias
Servicio de Información Agroalimentaria y Pesquera. (s. f.). Sistema de Información del Sector Agrícola: 1980-2022. Retrieved January 29, 2024 from https://www.gob.mx/siap/documentos/siacon-ng-161430
Shepherd, B. (2006). Estimating price elasticities of supply for cotton: A structural time-series approach. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/3/a-ah470e.pdf
Sistema Nacional de Información e Integración de Mercados. (s. f.). Precio del arroz en las centrales de abastos del Distrito Federal y Área Metropolitana. Retrieved February 5, 2024 from http://www.economia-sniim.gob.mx/nuevo/Home.aspx?opcion=Consultas/MercadosNacionales/PreciosDeMercado/Agricolas/ConsultaGranos.aspx?SubOpcion=6|0
Subsecretaría de Trasporte. (s.f.). Estadísticas de Transporte de América del norte: 1980-2022. Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transporte.
Tchereni, B. H., & Tchereni, T. H. (2013). Response of maize to price and non-price incentives in Malawi. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(5), 141–152. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/234645895.pdf
Tenaye, A. (2020). New evidence using a dynamic panel data approach: Cereal supply response in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia. Economies, 8(3), Article 61. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies8030061
Thiele, R. (2000). Estimating the aggregate agricultural supply response: a survey of techniques and results for developing countries (Kiel Working Papers No. 1016). Kiel Institute of World Economics. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/2516
Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Introducción a la econometría: Un enfoque moderno (4a ed.). CENGAGE Learning.
Additional Files
Published
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Eugenio Guzmán-Soria, Samuel Rebollar-Rebollar, Juvencio Hernández-Martínez, Aníbal Terrones Cordero, José Alberto García-Salazar (Autor/a)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
1. Proposed policy for open access journals
Authors who publish in this journal accept the following conditions:
a. Authors retain the copyright and assign to the journal the right to the first publication, with the work registered under the attribution, non-commercial and no-derivative license from Creative Commons, which allows third parties to use what has been published as long as they mention the authorship of the work and upon first publication in this journal, the work may not be used for commercial purposes and the publications may not be used to remix, transform or create another work.
b. Authors may enter into additional independent contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the article published in this journal (e.g., including it in an institutional repository or publishing it in a book) provided that they clearly indicate that the work was first published in this journal.
c. Authors are permitted and encouraged to publish their work on the Internet (e.g. on institutional or personal pages) before and during the review and publication process, as it may lead to productive exchanges and faster and wider dissemination of published work (see The Effect of Open Access).
How to Cite
