Predictive Accuracy of the Weighted Admission Average and the Standardized Performance Test: Academic Performance Among First-Year Architecture Students

Abstract

Entry into architecture degree programs requires admission procedures capable of predicting first-year academic performance, a critical indicator of student retention and an important measure of the effectiveness of admission criteria.  This study evaluates the predictive accuracy of the Standardized Performance Test (SPT) and the Weighted Admission Average (WAA) using linear regression models for Architecture cohorts admitted between 2016 and 2023. The results reveal that the final SPT score significantly correlated with student performance (r = .25–.52) whereas the WAA were below .20. The models accounted for 5% to 27% of the variance in student performance with moderate levels of predictive validity. Although the SPT provides an assessment that is closer to the discipline-specific knowledge and competency requirements, neither instrument demonstrates a high predictive value.  The findings provide empirical data which can be used to evaluate the efficacy of the present admissions process and subsequently analyze the appropriateness and validity of the tools currently used to select students into design/architecture programs. They also help identify factors related to first year performance and suggest opportunities to modify the selection process to promote greater equity and guide future research research regarding the prediction of student success and program quality in architecture and design Education.