Environmentally suitable area of four C4 forage grasses in Western Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15517/k5v4mn16Keywords:
climate change, grasslands, modelling, simulation, representative concentration pathwaysAbstract
Introduction. Grasslands are habitats for numerous species, provide various ecosystem services, and can contribute to carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Objective. To analyze the future environmentally suitable area for four C4 forage grasses in the dry tropics of Western Mexico under different scenarios. Materials and methods. Study sites include the dry tropics of the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, located in Western Mexico. Fifteen bioclimatic variables were used and processed with the Idrisi Selva software. Reference climate data corresponding to the period 1970-2000 and future climate scenarios with the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 periods were employed. The MaxEnt model was used to analyze the environmentally suitable area (ESA) of Bouteloua curtipendula, Brachiaria fasciculata, Sorghastrum nutans, and Tripsacum dactyloides. Results. The MaxEnt model showed that under future scenarios, precipitation will increase in Sierra Madre Occidental, the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, and the Pacific Ocean watershed, while the state of Jalisco will experience a reduction; the mean annual temperature in the study region will increase between 1.7 ¡C and 2.6 ¡C in the future scenarios compared to the reference climate. In addition, climate zones such as the sub-humid tropical, and the semi-arid tropical will increase in extent, while sub-tropical semi-arid zones will decrease. The models for the years 2060 and 2080 suggest that the environmentally suitable area for B. curtipendula, B. fasciculata, S. nutans, and T. dactyloides will decrease in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; however, only B. curtipendula will increase in the period 2041-2060 (RCP4.5). Conclusions. Temperature and precipitation changes throughout the region will modify the duration and timing of seasonal heat and alter climatic zones, thereby reducing the environmentally suitable area of the grasses analyzed in Western Mexico.
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